Monday, October 12, 2009

Of Arranged Marriages and Risk Appetites

Encouraged by the response I got on the last note, here comes some more "Geeky" stuff. I got a few private messages calling me a "Geeky loser", but lets not get discouraged by them, shall we? But before I delve into this next "insight", I need to confess that I doubted the accuracy of the tag "Geeky loser". Loser, yeah...but Geeky? So I Wikied (has that term been drafted into English Language yet? if not it should be, because once you google a term, Google asks to Wiki it anyway) the term "Geek", this is what I got: ,/p>

"The word geek is a slang term, noting individuals as a peculiar or otherwise odd person, especially one who is perceived to be overly obsessed with one or more things including those of intellectuality, electronics, etc. Formerly, the term referred to a carnival performer often billed as a wild man whose act usually includes biting the head off a live chicken, bat, snake or bugs."


I dont think I am a peculiar or an odd person. I am just a little passionate about (not obsessed with) intelectuality, mathematics, electronics, finance and economics. Well to my defense all I have to say is I am a Vegetarian (who likes to eat ROASTED Chicken once in a while). I consider myself more of an interdisciplinarian (I think there are enough Is and Ns in there). So Jury is still out on this.


So coming back to the insight I promised, I was having a conversation about marriages (yeah thats what losers do, they talk about it) with one of my friends recently. We were generally disussing about the expectations a man and woman have of each other in a marriage. Then I had a revelation (not too dramatic eh? I thought I would go for the "Eureka" term, but again thought it to be cliched. You know a lot of my women friends tell me that my problem is I think too much, I still couldnt get what problem were they talking about, but again we digress). So where were we? yeah the revelation. I think the type of a marriage a person prefers has got a direct relation to his risk appetite.


The type of the marriage being Arranged, Love or Unmarried. A person who is risk averse would prefer an arranged marriage the same way he would prefer investing in risk free securities or low risk/low return securities. Pretty much all the arranged marriages come with a set of predefined expectations, the way government bonds come with a fixed rate of return. Ofcourse on a few rare? occasions, expectations are not met akin to interest rate environment going haywire, but are generally considered low risk/riskless at the time of entry. Hey even if the expectations are not met, its not like you did fundamental research and calculated VaRs before you bought government bonds, you just trusted the Monetary policy to keep the regime stable, the same way you trust your parents in case of an arranged marriage to find you a "stable" partner.


Now here comes our next set of Investors, my personal favorites - the risk lovers. They just love the rush of gambling. They would do all the funadamental research, look at all the technical indicators and are convinced of a sure bet where their returns would keep on growing. These kind of people would mostly prefer a love marriage, they would love to go through the whole process of wooing/being wooed, going out on dates, fighting the parents, coming out on top (debatable?). The way these investors prefer a high return, their expectations are also pretty steep. How can they be let down, when they have invested so much physically, emotionally and financially? So more often than not these investors are quite adamant and in denial mode. I am not saying they would lose always, just the way some love marriages do seem to work. Another possibility of a "happy ending" is they die young with out reaching the wreckage at the end of the tunnel.


Our third set are the people who want remain Unmarried. These guys are loss averse. They would rather keep their money in vaults and wait to be robbed by thieves or inflation than invest in something. Its a super good philosophy guys, isnt it? you would rather hold on to your chips than sit on a table and play a hand, that way you could never lose. Flash news anti-losers, you can never win either. These guys would sit on a high pedestal and frown on institutions like marriage. "You lowly beings, I dont need you, I am self-sufficient. Marriages and Markets are for suckers, not for an evolved being like me."


Phew I dint realize I had written so much. But whats the use of this wisdom (no? think again!). Well it can be used by Financial Institutions to target right kind of customers for right kind of products. All you need is their view on marriage. Imagine how easy it would be to segment and target. So a Customer walks in, your business intelligence software pops a message "Love marriage", and you are like "Hello Sir, we have these amazing high return products for you sir, with the markets expected to reach unprecedented highs....", there the deal is done. Another customer walks in, another popup "Arranged Marriage", and you are like "Hello Sir, we have some amazing low risk fixed income products, with markets being volatile its the best place to park your money.....", there another sucker falls for it. Some guy walks in, another popup "Unmarried", and you are like "Er...this is a bank sir, where do you need to be?". Imagine how easy business would be.


I need to be paid for this.

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